Modelli - Cittadini per l'aria

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I modelli di distribuzione dell’inquinamento atmosferico

I modelli empirici di distribuzione dell’inquinamento atmosferico sono strumenti statistici che, analizzando ed integrando l’insieme delle componenti che influenzano l’inquinamento (flussi di traffico, emissioni dei veicoli, condizioni meteo, conformazione geografica, orografia e urbanistica dei luoghi, densità di popolazione), predicono la diffusione degli inquinanti dell’aria facilitando la comprensione di come l’inquinamento si distribuisca nei vari punti delle nostre città. Grazie ai monitoraggi diffusi e puntuali dei cittadini in progetti di scienza partecipata i modelli riescono a migliorare la stima delle concentrazioni degli inquinanti sulla città e, di conseguenza, la stima dell’impatto dell’inquinamento sulla salute di chi vive nelle aree urbane.

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I modelli sono di particolare importanza per stimare le concentrazioni di talune aree ove – per la quota relativamente ridotta di popolazione esposta e/o i livelli ridotti di inquinamento – non vi è la necessità di procedere a monitoraggi unicamente con apposite stazioni. La Direttiva 2008/50/CE al 6° considerando rileva che “ Ove possibile, è opportuno utilizzare tecniche di modellizzazione onde consentire un’interpretazione dei dati puntuali in termini di distribuzione geografica della concentrazione. Ciò potrebbe costituire una base per il calcolo dell’esposizione collettiva della popolazione nella zona interessata”. In vari punti della direttiva si prescrive dunque di integrare la misurazione in punti fissi con l’utilizzo dei modelli.

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Nel nostro progetto, grazie al Dipartimento di Epidemiologia del Lazio, verrà utilizzato un modello cd. “lurf” (land use random forest) che, utilizzando l’intelligenza artificiale e con l’ausilio dei dati satellitari, integra i dati mancanti rendendoli disponibili per mezzo di una stima. in questo modo sarà possibile stimare localmente le concentrazioni annue di NO2 anche nei punti nei quali i cittadini non li hanno monitorati. Grazie a ciò, verrà successivamente realizzata una stima del danno sanitario che si verifica nelle città a causa dell’esposizione alle varie concentrazioni di inquinante su tutto il territorio.

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GLI STADI DI PRODUZIONE DI UNA MAPPA LURF

Risultato della stima delle concentrazioni di PM10 e PM2.5 in Italia usando un modello LURF

Da Stafoggia et al. “Estimation of daily PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Italy, 2013–2015, using a spatiotemporal land-use random-forest model”

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Esplora le mappe

[/fusion_title][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=”1_3″ layout=”1_3″ spacing=”” center_content=”no” link=”” target=”_self” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”left top” undefined=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” hover_type=”none” border_size=”0″ border_color=”#00b1f1″ border_style=”solid” border_position=”all” padding_top=”20″ padding_right=”20″ padding_bottom=”20″ padding_left=”20″ margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”no”][fusion_imageframe image_id=”6093″ style_type=”none” stylecolor=”” hover_type=”none” bordersize=”” bordercolor=”” borderradius=”” align=”center” lightbox=”no” gallery_id=”” lightbox_image=”” alt=”” link=” https://www.cittadiniperlaria.org/no2-no-grazie-milano-2020/” linktarget=”_self” 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→ Scrivi ai tuoi rappresentanti ←

[/fusion_title][fusion_separator style_type=”none” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” sep_color=”rgba(224,222,222,0)” top_margin=”15″ bottom_margin=”15″ border_size=”0″ icon=”” icon_circle=”” icon_circle_color=”” width=”” alignment=”center” /][fusion_builder_row_inner][fusion_builder_column_inner type=”1_3″ layout=”1_3″ spacing=”” center_content=”no” hover_type=”none” link=”” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”left top” undefined=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” border_size=”0″ border_color=”” border_style=”solid” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”” margin_bottom=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”no” border_position=”all”][fusion_imageframe image_id=”6234″ style_type=”none” stylecolor=”” hover_type=”none” 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icon=”” icon_position=”left” icon_divider=”no” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=””]Scrivi ai rappresentanti dell’area di Milano[/fusion_button][/fusion_builder_column_inner][fusion_builder_column_inner type=”1_3″ layout=”1_3″ spacing=”” center_content=”no” hover_type=”none” link=”” min_height=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” background_color=”” background_image=”” background_position=”left top” background_repeat=”no-repeat” border_size=”0″ border_color=”” border_style=”solid” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” dimension_margin=”” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_offset=”” last=”no” border_position=”all” element_content=””][fusion_imageframe image_id=”6235″ style_type=”none” stylecolor=”” hover_type=”none” bordersize=”” bordercolor=”” borderradius=”” align=”center” lightbox=”no” gallery_id=”” lightbox_image=”” 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Napoli[/fusion_button][/fusion_builder_column_inner][/fusion_builder_row_inner][fusion_separator style_type=”none” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” sep_color=”rgba(224,222,222,0)” top_margin=”45″ bottom_margin=”45″ border_size=”0″ icon=”” icon_circle=”” icon_circle_color=”” width=”” alignment=”center” /][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]